Author: Prof. Colin R Talbot

Professor of Government (Emeritus), University of Manchester Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

Brexit and Parliament: what if…..?

I have been getting lots of calls, messages and emails asking me “what if….”

So here are a few answers.

What if the Government tables a motion for a General Election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?

This requires a two-thirds majority of all MPs – whether present and voting or not. That’s 434 MPs. They have already tried it once and failed. It’s unlikely to succeed when they try again on Monday. After that Parliament is going to be Prorogued so it will be impossible before it resumes in Oct. Continue reading “Brexit and Parliament: what if…..?” →

Boris Johnson and the Amoral Warrior(s)

A name that doesn’t come up in the Brexit debate is Miyamoto Musashi, a 16th and 17th century Japanese samurai. But he is probably present, none-the-less.

Why? Because Boris Johnson’s main advisor, Dominic Cummings, apparently prefers military strategists to political thinkers. And in the world of military strategy Musashi is up there with Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, Liddell-Hart, Giap, and other great military thinkers from history. And anyone familiar with Musashi can certainly see his ideas expressed in Cummings behaviour. Continue reading “Boris Johnson and the Amoral Warrior(s)” →

Parliament: a handy guide to the State of Play

As we head towards dramatic events in Westminster in a few weeks, I thought it might be worth providing a handy guide to the state of play in the House of Commons.

So here is the state of the Parties as at 23.00 on Weds 14 August 2019.

Note: today Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) joined the Lib Dems, boosting them to 14 and reducing the “Independent” group to 15.

Source: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/ (amended today)

Continue reading “Parliament: a handy guide to the State of Play” →

Can Jeremy Corbyn Become PM without a General Election?

By Colin Talbot

Everyone expects a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) in the Boris Johnson when Parliament resumes in the autumn. Exactly when remains an issue of some doubt, and whether or not it would pass is anyone’s guess.

That has not stopped rampant speculation and heated debate about what happens if and when the VONC passes.

Prominent in this kerfuffle has been the idea put forward by Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters – especially John McDonnell – that Corbyn could simply take over. He has famously said he would “send Jeremy to Palace in a taxi and tell the Queen that we are taking over.” How credible is this? Continue reading “Can Jeremy Corbyn Become PM without a General Election?” →

Can Parliament Stop a No Deal Brexit? [LBC discussion]

My discussion with Ayesha Hazarika on LBC radio on 9 August 2018.

Ayesha Hazarika

 

 

 

Understanding Paranoid Populism: how to misuse a theory and misunderstand history

At the weekend a very strange article appeared in The Mail on Sunday from one of the UK’s rising stars of political science, Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent.

One of his central claims – that 57% now backed Brexit – was shot down in flames and removed. Prof. Goodwin, somewhat unconvincingly, claimed it had been inserted by a sub-editor at the Mail. But by then leading Brexiteers like Steven Baker MP were already citing it as a “fact”.

But I want to focus on the opening of his article because it exposes a deeply worrying tendency to distort facts to suit an argument.

Continue reading “Understanding Paranoid Populism: how to misuse a theory and misunderstand history” →

The Tyranny of Innovation?

‘Innovation’ is cool. In the airport bookshop business section it’s probably about equal with ‘leadership’ as the hot topic (with AI coming up fast on the outside).

I mean, who can be against innovation, right? It’s brought us smart phones, Twitter, Instagram, Google, Netflix and take-away meals in the supermarket. What’s not to like?COBB

In my own main field of expertise – Government institutions and public policy, or what used to be called ‘public administration’ – innovation is now also ‘king’.

You can’t move for tripping over learned academic articles or gushing Government papers about the wonders of innovation in public administration and how it is going to solve the problem of ‘doing more with less’ (again).

At the risk of being accused of conservatism, let’s stop and think about this “innovation = good” fashion? Continue reading “The Tyranny of Innovation?” →

How my first job shaped my life …..Monkeys, Mondism and LD50

I left school at 16 because my Mum, by then a single parent, simply could not afford for me to stay on to do A-levels. I needed to go out to work and earn a living.

It was 1969, and back then in the UK you could choose more or less what you wanted to do if you had any qualifications. I had 5 O-levels, which was enough for most jobs. You really only needed more if you wanted to do A-levels and go on to University. That wasn’t then an option for me. Or even a vague idea.

So I went to work for ICI Pharmaceuticals Ltd in Alderley Edge, Cheshire. I moved from my council house in the industrial working-class town of Barrow-in-Furness to the one of the most wealthy, leafy, areas of Britain. It was a shock.

Continue reading “How my first job shaped my life …..Monkeys, Mondism and LD50” →

Change UK and the Brexit Party – collective versus authoritarian leadership?

by Colin Talbot

Change UK, the TIGgers, the Indepenent Group, or whatever they are called this week seem to be having problems.

Rachel Johnson, who is top of the new Party’s list for the southwest of England in the EU Elections, in a rather candid moment said “they want to focus group everything and they have a leadership team of about 11 people”. Change UK only have 11 MPs.

To be fair Ms Johnson is not the only one to criticise the apparent indecision and muddle in the way the new Party has launched itself. The general verdict from the political commentariat, even those sympathetic to the new project, is that it has been a bit of a shambles. The question is why? Continue reading “Change UK and the Brexit Party – collective versus authoritarian leadership?” →